And, the third moment is the European idea, which basically has the basic European values, which bind all the efforts of the political parties, especially the Albanian ones, such as: equality, freedom, human dignity, human rights, democracy and the rule of law. Apart from the election result, this European connection could create a powerful spirit that would transform North Macedonia into a modern society, which accepts and respects differences, and into a European state that guarantees the full equality of all its citizens. all the basics.
Authot: Xhelal Neziri
The leader of DUI, Ali Ahmeti, on January 17 revealed the idea of forming a European front or alliance in North Macedonia, which would include all political parties that are ready to advance the European integration process, without taking considering the political cost. He elaborated this idea precisely on the 555th anniversary of the death of Skanderbeg, the main historical figure of ethnic Albanians, which symbolizes their strategic orientation towards Europe.
A day later, this idea was also supported by the prime minister and chairman of SDSM, Dimitar Kovacevski. “I have said before that all the parties that are in favor of the European concept of the state, now is the time for them to do so, as it depends on us if we will speed up the integration in the European Union”. Towards the end of 2022, in a gathering held in the “Boris Trajkovski” hall in Skopje, this idea was also promoted by the general secretary of SDSM, Mile Zeçeviq. “This is the time when we all need to be on the right side. And we will succeed. For a prosperous and European Macedonia”.
THE FIRST COALITION WITH MORE THAN ETHNIC CAUSE
The other parties that are part of the Government, – such as Alternativa, DPA , PLD, DOM, LD, – have not yet stated their position on the idea of a European front. But, considering their public discourse and the support given to the French Proposal, they are expected to be part of this coalition.
With the eventual entry of the Alliance for Albanians (AA) into the Government, then this front can expand even more. The head of ASH, Arben Taravari, is said to have expressed readiness to Kovacevski to support the European concept, but everything will depend on the epilogue of the talks on the expansion of the governing coalition.
This coalition would not only include VMRO-DPMNE and LEVICA( THE LEFT) due to their stance against the Treaty of Good Friendship with Bulgaria, from which the French Proposal originated, and against the Prespa Agreement with Greece. Of the Albanian parties, for now, only BESA has not shown willingness to be part of the big front for Europe, even though it has not warned that it will oppose the constitutional changes.
Currently, there are several moments that go in favor of this coalition.
The first moment has to do with the US and EU sanctions lists for all those who undermine the peace agreements, especially in the context of the current geopolitics created by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. By order of the president of the USA, Joe Biden, in 2021 it was warned that all those who work against agreements in the Balkans, including Ohrid and Prespa, will be included in the “black list”. The group of important agreements for peace, security and stability in the region is expected to include the one with Bulgaria, concretized with the French Proposal. According to the order, the list will include any person or organization that is responsible or complicit, directly or indirectly involved in activities or policies that threaten the peace, security or stability, or territorial integrity of any region or country in the Western Balkans and undermine democratic processes and institutions in the region.
Two years later, a group of experts from Washington landed in Skopje to make the final analysis regarding the organizations and persons to be added to the list. However, it will be expected to see the behavior of certain parties and politicians towards the French Proposal, so that the list can then be updated.
The second moment concerns the last obstacle in European integration. It is precisely the constitutional changes to include ethnic Bulgarians in the Preamble that are the main prerequisite for the country to open the first chapters of the “Fundamentals” group of chapters, which are expected to promote radical reforms in the country’s state system. This group includes chapters on the rule of law, on economic criteria and on public administration reforms. With the new methodology of the negotiation process, this group has a central role, which means that without sufficient progress in this area, no other groups will be opened. In fact, the group “Fundamentals” lasts throughout the negotiation process – the first one opens and the last one closes. The constitutional changes are envisaged by the French Proposal, a compromise document that was approved last year by Skopje and Sofia, which paved the way for the start of the negotiation process for membership in the European Union (EU).
The screening report is now being finalized, as the first stage before the opening of the first chapters, which means an analysis of all the laws, norms and practices of the institutions of North Macedonia to see if they are in accordance with EU laws of (acuis). Screening is a kind of X-ray, which will show all the defects of the state of the RMV, which will be aimed at improving during the process of opening and closing the chapters.
And, the third moment is the European idea, which basically has the basic European values, which bind all the efforts of the political parties, especially the Albanian ones, such as: equality, freedom, human dignity, human rights, democracy and the rule of law. Apart from the election result, this European connection could create a powerful spirit that would transform North Macedonia into a modern society, which accepts and respects differences, and into a European state that guarantees the full equality of all its citizens. all the basics.
HOW MANY DEPUTIES WOULD THE FRONT WIN?
Can such a coalition win the 2024 parliamentary elections?
Everything will depend on the approach of the parties that will make up this link in terms of promoting European values and benefits from the EU integration negotiation process. The platform that will be compiled on European values must first be trusted and accepted by the actors of this coalition. If this will be realized, then the second step will be easier – that is, the one of persuading the citizens to support the same.
This coalition is similar to the one that was created in 2018, when the referendum on the Prespa Agreement with Greece was held. Although he did not manage to win over 50 percent of the voters, nearly 610,000 voters voted “for”. The referendum question was related to the Euro-Atlantic integration of the country and was formulated as follows: “Are you for NATO and EU membership accepting the Agreement between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece”. All parties that supported this referendum are expected to be part of the Front. The only exception in this case is BESA, which has warned that it will not be part of such a coalition. Therefore, the estimates are that this large coalition will be able to receive somewhere between 500 and 600 thousand votes, which would be enough to obtain more than 70 mandates in the Parliament. Based on the results of the last parliamentary elections of 2020, SDSM with its partners had 327 thousand votes, DUI 104 thousand, Alliance for Albanians and Alternatives 81 thousand, PDSH 14 thousand. In total, they won some 525 thousand votes, or 73 deputies. Competition with a list is favored by D’Hont’s formula, but on the other hand, the possible boycott within these entities should be taken into account, taking into account the current cracks that may occur.
In addition to the avoidance of a new blockade by Sofia due to the possible non-fulfillment of obligations from the French Proposal, the broad European front would be a turning point in the history of North Macedonia’s politics. For the first time, parties with different ethnic backgrounds would unite around a supra-ethnic cause and compete as a coalition in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The promotion of the rule of law as a value, meanwhile, will oblige the parties to decriminalize the lists of candidates for deputies and government positions. At the same time, this value would oblige all these parties to be active factors in the fight against corruption, raising a different consciousness in the first place among their members, and then also in the public opinion of the country in general.