A very dynamic year awaits North Macedonia. None of the parties is in calm waters, and by adding geopolitical turbulence here, we will see even more acrobatics that we probably didn’t even think about. Paradoxes will return to normality and the momentum of this dynamic will topple large rocks from the political scene – a great shake is coming.
Author: Sefer Selimi Jr.
The recent turmoil in the political scene in North Macedonia is not a surprise considering that almost since 2015 the citizens saw and did not see in the political circus, often even beyond the imagination of Orwell and the cunning of Machiavelli. And in the same style, the scenarios, strategies and actions of political actors cause confusion among the citizens as to what is happening, who is with whom and who is working behind who’s back.
SDSM – after the change of leadership and leader, has been released in the throne games where everyone tries to position themselves next to the new “king”, “vizier” and courtiers – while he (Kovačevski), completely unconsolidated, has carried all operational power to “his vizier” (Zeqević) who de facto leads the party and has tremendous influence on the current government – down to the smallest personnel selections in the SDSM. But one of the main factors that Kovaceski does not achieve in the full consolidation of the party are the four intra-party currents that challenge the unity of the party – the current of the former president Zaev, the current of Sheqerinska, the current of Spasovski and that of Zecevic. All these currents, which have strong ambitions, are among the main culprits of the government’s inefficiency and question many important issues, including the very existence of the government.
VMRO-DPMNE – has fallen into the delirium of the idea that they are coming to power and their behavior often resembles that of the owner of the state, nation and identity of the Macedonians. Having learned closely from the departure of the potential partner in the Albanian camp – the Alliance for Albanians – this party is in the middle of a substantial dilemma that will determine their political fate: 1) press the nuclear button and return to ethno-nationalist extremism competing with the extreme Left on these topics or 2) to focus on creating an environment where an Albanian political partner would not feel embarrassed to be in power with Mickovski. Currently, as it seems, the wind in VMRO-DPMNE is blowing for the first option and most likely this will keep it isolated for a long time without a clear perspective for potential partners as well as for the international factor for the eventual return to power.
DUI – It is at the beginning of the culmination of the biggest crisis that this party has ever had since its foundation and is slowly approaching the prediction that “BDI will defeat DUI”. No one can clearly decipher the stubbornness of Ali Ahmeti to risk everything he has built these 20 years in DUI by linking his political legacy with Artan Grubi and by exposing himself to one of the statements in the last gatherings that ” no one remembers how you start, but how you end.” The faction that already publicly opposes his decisions are the most serious challengers that the party has had, including 1) Izet Mejhiti, Blerim Bexheti, almost half of the leadership of the party and a large number of officials who control powerful local structures and not only in Skopje and 2) Musa Xhaferi, the man who knows all the good and bad things about fellow traveler Abaz Gjuka.
Alliance for Albanians – It was founded and built on the political identity of Ziadin Sela, who had a great public appearance, but an equally great lack of political calculations. The loss of several important momentums that will position ASH without any dilemma as the main party of the Albanians in North Macedonia cost him the post of chairman, which was inherited by the second main figure of this party, Arben Taravari. The latter faces two main dilemmas in order to consolidate his power in the party: 1) to follow the path of stubborn Ziadin to satisfy his supporters or 2) to consolidate power through participation in the government. As it seems, the wind in the Alliance for Albanians is blowing from the second option.
A very dynamic year awaits North Macedonia. None of the parties is in calm waters, and by adding geopolitical turbulence here, we will see even more acrobatics that we probably didn’t even think about. Paradoxes will return to normality and the momentum of this dynamic will topple large rocks from the political scene – a great shake is coming.