The involvement of Alliance for Albanians in the Government comes with risks and opportunities for all parties, but in this unpredictable situation what it brings is stability for the government, and a little more peace for the citizens who the least they want is to be released into the blockade and the mess with early elections.
Author: Sefer Selimi Jr.
Since the end of the 2020 parliamentary elections and the establishment of the Government of the Republic of North Macedonia with a fragile parliamentary majority, both former Prime Minister Zaev and his successor Kovaceski have stated on several public occasions that “soon, the majority parliamentary will increase”. At the time, these statements expressed more of a wish than a real possibility. Furthermore, the parliamentary majority was called into question after the local elections when one of the partners, Lévizja Besa, decided to abandon the governing coalition and aligned with opposition forces to create a new governing conglomerate with opposition parties led by VMRO-DPMNE. After this failed attempt, there was a round of partners, in which case the Alernativa party abandoned the coalition with the Alliance for Albanians and replaced the Besa Movement with its four deputies, ensuring the survival of the majority, but not enough to solve the problem with the fragility of numbers. In the political scene, there has recently been an attempt to change the alignment of forces in the parliamentary majority, the most serious so far, including the Alliance for Albanians with its eight deputies in the Government. In anticipation of this opportunity, a view on who gains what and who loses in the event that the Alliance for Albanians is included in the government:
Alliance for Albanians – The party is in a leadership crisis after the catastrophic loss of votes in the extraordinary elections for the Municipal Council of Tetovo, which resulted in the resignation of the chairman of the party, Ziadin Sela. The Alliance for Albanians had built its public image from the beginning based on two main figures, the Chairman Sela and the Secretary of the party and the Chairman of Gostivar, Arben Taravari, who after Sela’s resignation until the party congress was designated as Acting Chairman of AA (Alliance for Albanians).The latter is the main contender and favorite to lead the party and the eventual inclusion of AA (Alliance for Albanians )in the Government would undoubtedly help this ambition, but moreover it would consolidate his power within the party.
Starting from the fact that this party derives from the DPA which was historically concrete in the opposition, the leaders of this party must have learned the fable of politics in a state with a clientelistic political system, no matter how dedicated and determined they are a voter to support an opposition political party, unfortunately the ruling party devours him with favors, blackmail and seduction with power which offers a golden opportunity for your promises to be more credible than those of a party that is in opposition. If the AA (Alliance for Albanians). will be included in the Government with a correct agreement, most of the power should be concentrated in Tetovo to restore the base of the lost voters and give it the chance to be in the competition to be the winner in the next elections to the Albanian bloc. However, this should not be done blindly, but with a delicate selection between the professionalism and credibility of the candidate, and for this they should take their last candidacy for mayor in Tetovo as a bad example.
The Democratic Union for Integration – In this case, the party loses, but their “undisputed” leader, Ali Ahmeti, wins, who, like never before, is under pressure from his fellow party members for the choice of personnel and the way the party is organized. The political bubble “DUI of the next 20 years” was burned in the face by the “Fire Group” who not only put it in a difficult position within the party but now have the capacity to endanger the majority in the Parliament . However, this – the expansion of the Government would remove this momentary pressure, but it would also eliminate it forever, because the assumptions are that this movement within the DUI will not die down, but will deepen even more, and in not to help him in the next elections will damage the party a lot.
The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia – For this party, the expansion is a double-edged sword because in case of the inclusion of AA (Alliance for Albanians).in the Government, the dominance, at least perceptual, of the Albanian parties will increase significantly, and in this case the political opponents can use it as a battle horse with conservative national populist voters. But on the other hand, it would give him the comfort to fulfill his own political and government agenda which is held hostage in many cases only by the lack of quorum in the parliament and is blackmailed by the individual deputies who within this fragile parliamentary majority have the convenience of highlighting all kinds of personal whims and caprices. Deeply affected by the recent global crises, her approval rating has been significantly damaged, while a larger majority would enable her to see her term through to the end and give her a real chance to improve her performance.
Alternative – From the parliamentary majority, this party seems to show the greatest resistance to the inclusion of former pre-election coalition partners. This can most likely come from the feeling of guilt they have because in two cases they stepped on this party, the first by becoming its substitute in 2017 when after the local elections they were included in the government which was abandoned by AA (Alliance for Albanians). and recently after the race in the local elections when they violated the pre-election coalition agreement and were again included in the Government as a replacement for the Besa Movement which abandoned the Government. Therefore, their criticism lacks moral credibility, especially when according to all pre-election polls of 2020 they have at least two MPs gifted by the coalition with AA (Alliance for Albanians).
Besa Movement – As expected, the victory in the Tetova Municipality “increased the mind” and with it the ambitions of this party, which at the first moment tried to impose itself as a factor in the collapse of the Government in which it was involved with the coalition pre-election with the SDSM and then as the key factor that would build the Government with VMRO-DPMNE and other Albanian opposition parties. Even in this eventual case of the inclusion of AA (Alliance for Albanians) in the Government, this party will present itself as the Albanian opposition, however the national creed and cause is now buried on the day of the signing of the pre-election coalition with a civic concept with the SDSM in the parliamentary elections of 2020. A serious obstacle is also the lack of capacity of the party and human infrastructure that it possesses.
VMRO – DPMNE – This party continues to remain toxic for any Albanian party that flirts with it, first of all because of the nationalist narrative and policies that are either directly against the Albanians or indirectly affect the Albanians’ interest in North Macedonia. With the inclusion of AA (Alliance for Albanians) in the Government, this party ends up alone in the opposition, as a party that endangers the general interest of the state for the European perspective and cohesion among citizens. If AA (Alliance for Albanians). is included in the Government, VMRO-DPMNE may choose to beat the nationalist drums or reflect and change the approach, which is very unlikely.
In conclusion, the inclusion of AA (Alliance for Albanians) in the Government comes with risks and opportunities for all parties, but in this unpredictable situation what it brings is stability for the government, and a little more peace for the citizens who the least they want is to be released in the blockade and agitation with early elections.