Tuesday, May 28, 2024

PRE-ELECTORAL HESITATIONS AND SPINS 

The games apparently will not end, as everyone talks to each other about forming a government. Each subject sees itself projected into the next government, but each subject fears the electoral “boomerang” that may happen in a short time, because any combination for the formation of the government must take into account the predictions that after a year again there may be choices. It is this fact that gives the government a ton of political conjecture, especially at a time when the new government faces a mountain of challenges that will require a lot of electoral energy and responsibility that in a very short time can translate into electoral failure and disappointment.

Author: Bardhyl Zaimi

 With temperatures rising in late July, the political scene in northern Macedonia has begun to heat up. The July 15 elections have already yielded a surprising result with many political combinatorics for forming the government. The formalization of mandates by the SEC has paved the way for talks between political parties, while the opposition in the Albanian political bloc has protested in Skopje, contesting the election process.

In the prelude to the talks, the parties are gradually establishing their positions in relation to the possibilities for inclusion in a possible coalition and in relation to the strong previous oppositions during the election campaign. The parties in the Albanian political bloc during the campaign had posted the advancement of the position of the Albanians in the state entity of Northern Macedonia, which was thought that in the post-election phase could create a political convergence. From the first warnings it seems that there will be no alignment for the issues raised during the campaign, while their polarization remains typical as during the election campaign.

The Democratic Union for Integration, meanwhile, has come up with five pillars for a possible joint platform between the Albanian parties, which has been opposed by the ASH-Alternativa coalition, assessing this platform as frivolous. Clashes between Albanian political entities are likely to continue in the meantime, perhaps hoping for a cooperation.

In the democratic ring of government formation, all parties hope for a combinatorics for the creation of a parliamentary majority, as provided by law. The winning party in the Macedonian political bloc SDSM has previously stated that it has the mandate to form a government, while Hristian Mickovski’s VMRO-DPMNE has also made claims. Although SDSM and DUI as the winning parties in the Macedonian and Albanian political bloc have the numbers to form the government, this operation becomes difficult due to the idea of ​​the Albanian Prime Minister launched during the election campaign by Ahmeti’s party.

Exactly, this idea made the post-election situation very unknown, while SDSM has reiterated several times that the next prime minister will be Zoran Zaev. Although at the level of numbers this coalition can form the government, at the political level there are hatreds and party “sedra” that make the talks difficult. The creation of two extremely opposing political hemispheres during the campaign, but even earlier, have created a new moment of political “impatience” that is also associated with post-election electoral reflections as a result of strong positions. Pre-election efforts have created a hopeless political situation for both parties and they are now in a situation where neither can move from its own narrative because losses in the long run can be fatal for either.

In such a situation, with many question marks, with party sedation, with forced pre-election commitments, with the fear that comes from losing in the electorate, a possible governing compromise seems very difficult. It is a situation where the two winners look stunned, irritated and confused in the stalemate of the pre-election narrative. One thing remains clear the leaders of the two parties will find it very difficult to back down from their positions, because this would be understood as a weakness in relation to the statements made during the campaign, which turned into a battle for “life or death” .

And in all this context we have two hemispheres where the battle takes place, in the Albanian political hemisphere that really knows other dynamics and that is really within the normal democratic dynamics and another blurred hemisphere, with countless spins coming from the winning party SDSM, which seek to create a kind of pressure, confusion and a surreal state of perceptions that only this party decides on the formation of the next government.

Over time exhibits close to this party have taken on the role of judge, the role of interpreting and “stamping” what can be fair and democratic and what should be passed or abandoned before they have the last word on who will take it to the government. Coordinated spins that create a tense atmosphere and that make it even more difficult to reach a possible compromise.

The games apparently will not end, as everyone talks to each other about forming a government. Each subject sees itself projected into the next government, but each subject fears the electoral “boomerang” that may happen in a short time, because many analysts have already stressed that any combination of government formation can not to account for more than one year. It is this fact that gives the government a ton of political conjecture, especially at a time when the new government faces a mountain of challenges that will require a lot of electoral energy and responsibility that in a very short time can translate into electoral failure and disappointment.

The non-electoral phase is being permeated with political reassessments and repositionings, with factoring ideas and with many spins seeking to dismantle the party guards created to abandon ideas that might be considered triumphant. A blurred picture, with an effort in the background that requires political pragmatism, but also the sense of victory of the idea in relation to the electorate. The coming days will surely give a clearer picture of the position of political parties for the formation of the government. Talks will take place, while tactics will be used to the end to maintain the feeling of victory and participation in government at the same time.  

 

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