One thing remains certain is that North Macedonia will face a difficult process of forming a government that is likely to take some time. Pre-election rhetoric, but also the positioning of parties in a fragile political scene with actors that mean preserving the electorate will pave the way for the formation of a government with many unknowns and opportunities to create a political crisis
Author: Bardhyl Zaimi
The July 15 elections yielded a result with many unknowns. Despite the fact that the SDSM coalition has emerged victorious in the Macedonian political bloc and DUI in the Albanian political bloc, as expected, the combinatorics for the formation of the government will be dictated by many party tactics.
Albanians in these elections have won an extraordinary number of mandates, 32 deputies, including the deputies of the Besa Movement that was in a pre-election coalition with the Social Democrats of Zoran Zaev. The turnout of Albanian voters remains approximately the same as in other election cycles, while according to experts this number of deputies is a result of the low turnout of the Macedonian electorate. According to many analysts, the low turnout of Macedonians has been interpreted as a penalty for the two main parties SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE, which have not been able to get voters who are considered traditional of their parties.
However, the close result of the Macedonian parties made the formation of the parliamentary majority much less known, especially because of the pre-election rhetoric, but also because of the numbers that can hardly be articulated in a ruling majority.
Ali Ahmeti’s DUI with 15 deputies won says it is the key to forming the next government, while all the safer and less complicated combinatorics as a number go in their favor.
In the meantime, the opposition in the Albanian political bloc has a solid result and remains in the game for the formation of the coalition, but also for any other form of government that would mean an expanded coalition.
In other variants of forming the government without Ahmeti’s DUI, the DPA deputy plays a decisive role, because together with the two deputies of Apasiev’s “Left” party, the DPA deputy seals the formation of the coalition.
In the meantime, if there is no change in the outcome after the complaints to the SEC and after the administrative court decision, this scenario for the formation of the government seems extremely difficult, almost impossible because it will have to harmonize ideological and partisan contradictions that are almost incompatible. .
Apasiev in this scenario remains the other key player without whom there can be no government formation. In a statement after the election, the leader of the extreme left, as described in the opinion, stated that he did not go to the elections to enter the government, but to enter parliament and have a voice there to win in the next early elections, according to him, a double-digit number of deputies.
Apasiev accused that 10 thousand votes were stolen from him, while he pointed his finger at SDSM. This makes it very difficult for this party to form a coalition with the Social Democrats, while with many attitudes it is closer to Mickovski’s right. Apasiev has been described as a controversial leader and a collaboration with his party seems fragile and with many unknowns. However, in politics everything is possible, so even this scenario remains open, although very unlikely.
Creating a coalition of the two winners in this election, SDSM and DUI, despite having the numbers, seems to be extremely difficult due to strong opposition during the election campaign and due to the idea of an Albanian prime minister for which DUI insists. The leader of this party, Ahmeti, has announced that he has talked to other Albanian parties to support his idea. Probably this party will insist until the end for an Albanian Prime Minister and this has been announced in the meantime in its public appearances.
The possibility of a compromise is not ruled out, but this will surely come after a long period of talks and tactics that could mean receiving the mandate to form a government from VMRO-DPMNE, which has also shown ambitions to secure a parliamentary majority justifying this with the credibility it has as a party.
One thing remains certain is that North Macedonia will face a difficult government-forming process that is likely to take some time. Pre-election rhetoric, but also the positions of the parties in a fragile political scene with actors that mean preserving the electorate will pave the way for the formation of a government with many unknowns and opportunities to create a political crisis.
The very fact that the next government in all variants will be fragile and perhaps without a cohesion and condition to be stable determines the strong positions of political parties that in a way means other early elections perhaps together with the local ones that expected to be held next year.
This political configuration, the challenges with the pandemic and the expected economic crisis in the autumn do not exclude the possibility of an expanded coalition or government of experts, especially at a time when North Macedonia must continue with the opening of the negotiation chapters with the EU.
According to all warnings, the road to the next government will be very difficult and with many tactics. While the DUI has stressed that all roads lead to Recica e Vogel, where the party is based, the leader of the winning Macedonian party, Zoran Zaev, has preferred the holidays before starting talks on forming a government. The idea of the Albanian Prime Minister makes the political process of talks for the formation of the government with many unknowns, not excluding the lineups on ethnic grounds, as Zaev had warned during the campaign and as Ahmeti warns for a “union” of Albanian political entities around the idea of the Albanian Prime Minister.
In politics anything is possible, but the political antagonisms within the same ethnic camp are so great that it seems impossible to have unifications on this basis. However, in the circumstances of a result that concretizes the position of the parties to run the next government at all costs, it may even produce alignments on ethnic grounds.