Sunday, May 19, 2024

WILL VMRO-DPMNE PUSH US EVEN INTO A DANGEROUS CRISIS SPIRA

The game played by VMRO-DPMNE is quite dangerous. There is no positive scenario that can be foreseen if the constitutional changes do not happen now. Not voting on constitutional changes only brings uncertainty, risks and scenarios that are each more bleak than the other. Constitutional changes will occur if North Macedonia continues on the path of integration, the difference is whether it will continue now or after a dangerous spiral of internal and external crises, with unknowns that no one has predicts costs that no one can calculate. There is no other way than the EU and there will not be, and VMRO-DPMNE is more than clear about this!

Author: Sefer Selimi Jr.

The moment of truth about the constitutional changes for the inclusion of Bulgarians, Croats, Montenegrins and possibly other minorities in the constitution of the Republic of North Macedonia is near. Soon, after the preparation of the proposals by the working group, the members of the parliament will have to determine with 80 votes plus the need for these changes and thus pave the way for the process that, if approved, is expected to be voted on by the end of October this year.

Also due to the fact that this condition is taxing for the opening of the first cluster for negotiations with the EU and without these changes the country will remain in the number of seats, as it seems VMRO-DPMNE is determined and is toughening the rhetoric that its deputies will not give support to these changes – or as they prefer to say – not with this parliamentary composition. But their arguments are unstable, because they are not only contradictory but also very dangerous.

  1. Not with this parliamentary composition – the main and most used argument is that this parliament does not have a mandate to make constitutional changes, and often in political circles the argument that after coming to power VMRO will make the changes itself -DPMNE.

The problem here is that nobody trusts them anymore. It was the same party with Gruevski at the head that in meetings and informal conversations always promised to resolve the issue about the name with Greece, but never kept the promise – even used the bought time to consolidate power until it was completely seized by the party. Second, according to this logic, VMRO-DPMNE should campaign and seek support from the citizens for the constitutional changes – which has no chance given the fact that this party bases its rating precisely on the nationalist populism that is based on opposition to Bulgaria. Otherwise, I should come out and offer another alternative besides the European Union, because both publicly and in closed meetings the message has been and is clear, as in the case with Greece, that without the change of the constitution there will be no progress in the path to EU integration. And third, even if it happens that VMRO-DPMNE comes to power and changes the constitution, the first cluster of negotiations will be opened in October 2025, so in the best possible scenario with at least 2 years and half a delay even if all other geo-political factors and EU interests remain unchanged.

  1. We will change the negotiating framework with the EU

The negotiating framework with the EU has been unanimously approved by all EU member states and by the majority of the parliament members of the Republic of Moldova, where the winning compromise of the ethnic Macedonians is the international legal affirmation of the Macedonian language and ethnic identity. This would mean that RMV will unilaterally withdraw from the process and thus start a process that is as dangerous as it is unpredictable. First, even if it comes to power with its 61 deputies, there is no Albanian partner that would become part of such a coalition, because not only would it be isolated together with VMRO-DPMNE from the entire international community, but would be isolated and disappear from the political scene and from the Albanian voter. The second and most dangerous is the idea that they will include any “individual” with Albanian ethnicity to represent this ethnic group in power. This is as dangerous as Milosevic’s idea of ​​removing Albanians from public institutions, which resulted in a parallel system of operation and quite large consequences for everyone. The time for this mentality has ended in the last century.

The game played by VMRO-DPMNE is quite dangerous. There is no positive scenario that can be foreseen if the constitutional changes do not happen now. Not voting on constitutional changes only brings uncertainty, risks and scenarios that are each more bleak than the other. Constitutional changes will occur if North Macedonia continues on the path of integration, the difference is whether it will continue now or after a dangerous spiral of internal and external crises, with unknowns that no one has predicts costs that no one can calculate. There is no other way than the EU and there will not be, and VMRO-DPMNE is more than clear about this!

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