Wednesday, May 22, 2024

THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FROM THE COLLISION IN DUI( DEMOCRATIC UNION FOR INTEGRATION)

The situation within DUI is of interest to the citizens, not because we are interested in the internal work within their party, but because as the second party in the governing coalition and the largest among the Albanians in RMV, it also dictates the political scene and the development trajectory of the state. . Unlike other times, this division in DUI will not produce a winner, although Ali Ahmeti may win the battle but will lose the war. Most likely, the Albanians of North Macedonia will end up with one party in each district.

Author: Sefer Selimi  Jr.

It has been more than two years since the crisis in the Democratic Union for Integration has grown slowly but continuously. It started immediately after the parliamentary elections of 2020, when Ali Ahmeti decided that the entire government cabinet, apart from the proposal of the minister of education, would be selected by himself – without the intervention and approval of the party branches. The initial justifications to overcome the crisis caused by this decision were that the government will undergo reconstruction within six months and the remarks will be examined and addressed. Here we are one year before the end of the mandate, with two government reshuffles and the DUI government cabinet remains unchanged, while the coming weeks will dictate DUI’s trajectory for the future. I will not enter into arguments about whether one side or the other is right because in essence both fight for power within the party that would bring or keep them in government power – it’s that simple – although both sides have built their arguments for this intra-party clash.

In almost 22 years of political activity, the Democratic Union for Integration has gone through similar crises, even much tougher, ending in armed conflicts with human casualties. But the difference is the time context, the circumstantial one and the most important form of this crisis is unique. What are the three main scenarios being discussed:

– The slow suffocation of the “fire group” in Ahmetian style: First Deputy Prime Minister Artan Grubi, who is presented as the main reason for the dissatisfaction of the faction led by deputy Izet Mexhiti, for counterbalance and for further differentiation within the structure, proclaimed ” Ahmetian spirit ”. In fact, this more because he wants to emphasize his defense by bringing out the figure of Ali Ahmeti in the first front of this clash. If we will analyze the “Ahmeti spirit” in such clashes in the past, what we can notice is that, even as the “Ahmetists” want to proclaim with much flattery, Ali Ahmeti has so far not excluded any from the party, but  has done everything possible to make it impossible for them to remain in the party. And this has worked thanks to the strategic patience for which his leadership style is known. In the past this has resulted in insurgents within the party either being completely subjugated, dishonored and humiliated to continue to hold some inferior position or forced to leave the party themselves. This strategy seems to be being implemented with the “fire group” and that in the coming days they will be stripped of all party and government functions that these party figures carry – with the hope and idea that without functions they will their power on the ground wanes – which I highly doubt.

– Final break with the fire group – this scenario is the most desired for the group of functionaries who are under pressure from the faction within the party. For them, this final crack would pave the way for them to control the party without any resistance or dissent – at least until the next election. The idea that dominates this scenario is that the “fire group” is powerful only because behind them are the functions and sigla of the party and that their weight on the ground is not greater than that of government officials. In fact, the party should not be the individual, but the party mentality of DUI that is built on the figure of Ali Ahmeti, who in recent years seems to be stuck in the ivory tower, listening only to whom he wants, and here, they only tell him things that go in their favor. Therefore, although this rift may bring short-term peace to the governors and Ahmet, it will bring headaches in the next elections – whenever they are held.

– The creation of a new opposition conglomerate – the faction of disgruntled officials in DUI is calculating eventual exit strategies. These strategies are mainly developed on the calculations of possible votes, and what is being talked about is a united opposition conglomerate where all the parties and individuals who are out of power and do not feel represented by the DUI or the Alliance for Albanians. Building such a coalition is quite difficult, firstly because of ideological and conceptual divergences, and more because of the partisanship of who will lead it. Even if such a union is achieved, it will be difficult to resist time and challenges, even more so a future government which will be quite convoluted and full of unknowns – and in the absence of a strong leadership and unique will also be a complicating and most likely unwanted factor for the largest governing party.

The situation within DUI is of interest to the citizens, not because we are interested in the internal work within their party, but because as the second party in the governing coalition and the largest among the Albanians in RMV, it also dictates the political scene and the development trajectory of the state. Unlike other times, this division in DUI will not produce a winner, although Ali Ahmeti may win the battle but will lose the war. Most likely, the Albanians of North Macedonia will end up with one party in each district.

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