Wednesday, May 22, 2024

CALCULATIONS FOR AN EXTENDED MAJORITY

In the coming days, many of the dilemmas will be clarified and more realistic expectations can be built for the development of the political scene in the country. For other things, such as a possible pre-election coalition between DUI and AA (Alliance for Albanians) in the next parliamentary elections, we will have to wait at least a few more months to crystallize the party’s interests and arguments for such an action.

Author: Sefer Selimi Jr.

In recent days, what has been rumored for more than two months, the expansion of the ruling majority with the Alliance for Albanians, is becoming concrete. At first, this seemed like something impossible based on the fact that ASH for 5 years in a row has been a rude critic of the government, especially the Albanian partner the Democratic Union for Integration, however in politics 2+2 do not always make 4. If we want to analyze how such an eventual coalition can be made possible, we must always start from the political context in which the state and the interests of the political parties are located, and then it is easy to deconstruct the arguments and the form by which political actions are justified.

North Macedonia, blocked for many years by the veto and various obstacles from external factors in its journey towards the European Union, today finds itself before the moment to block itself with the leadership of the largest Macedonian opposition party VMRO-DPMNE. All the pressure put on the EU for not keeping its word and losing credibility is now in our backyard, and if someone is going to block the state from opening the negotiating chapters and thus the full start of the membership negotiations, the culprit can no longer to be sought outside but in our parties. Based on this fact, it is easy to create the argument of the expansion of the majority using the critical moment for the country’s European perspective, but in fact the eventual inclusion of ASH in the government has to do mainly with the narrow interests of the governing parties and the dynamics of their internal.

The DUI, faced with a possible serious factionalism, needs to compensate for the votes of the deputies that it can no longer take for granted. Also, seeing the action of the “fire group” that descended on the base to explain the reasons for their action, the party leader followed by the “functionary group” hurried to do the same with the sole purpose of to control the narrative within the supporters, but also with the general public, which is actually exposing its own 20-year failures. The slogan “Together for the EU” is urgent not only because it has nothing to do with what is spoken in these meetings but also because it is turning into a dangerous mechanism that tries to monopolize the integration process as the exclusive right of this group and to accuse and label everyone else who does not obey this line and who criticizes them as “pro-Russian elements” or as obstacles to the European process.

The SDSM, as the leader of the government coalition, lacks a quorum within the parliament, and most of the laws, among them quite important in the party agenda, have remained in the corridors of the parliament and are subject to low-level blackmail, often even by members of parliament for their own interests. quite small and personal, especially from the smaller coalition parties. With the expansion of the majority, the weight and possibility of blackmail will decrease, but also the adoption of laws will gain in dynamics, which will enable the fulfillment of some of the remaining promises and the preparation for the next election campaign. Meanwhile, Ali Ahmeti’s DUI wants to buy as much time as possible to eliminate or soften the group of disaffected. The other Albanian partner in the coalition, Aleternativa, has its own intra-party problems and in case of abandoning the coalition, it is quite possible that most of their MPs will not follow the party’s decision and continue to support the ruling majority.

On the other hand, the Alliance for Albanians has its own interests and with a new chairmanship and leadership that seems to make party calculations with a new pragmatic approach, starting from the idea that political action should be done taking responsibility and not from the comfort of the opposition critical. However, the power is a consolidating mechanism and having the right experience in the opposition with coalitions that cost him a lot of votes – this approach, not without significant risks, can be a successful formula to bring back the voters he lost in the last cycle of local elections.

The BESA movement, which is now happy with the fact that it will be the only opposition party among Albanians, hopes for an increase in the voting body, but in this calculation two factors can be decisive: 1) coordination with VMRO-DPMNE and 2) local party mentality. As for the first, the opposition action and coordination with VMRO-DPMNE, this party does not seem to have a complex, but in the eyes of Albanian voters, VMRO-DPMNE is like nuclear waste and anyone who approaches it will be contaminated, just like it also happened to the Alliance for Albanians itself. As for the second part, with the local government in Tetovo, this movement has been released into micro-management, dealing even with the cleaners of the suburban schools, while it is isolated within the bureaucratic walls of the Municipality of Tetovo. Getting out of this mentality is very difficult, especially when you lack human and financial potential, as was the case with Rufi Osman’s RDK.

In the coming days, many of the dilemmas will be clarified and more realistic expectations can be built for the development of the political scene in the country. For other things, such as a possible pre-election coalition between DUI and ASH in the next parliamentary elections, we will have to wait at least a few more months to crystallize the party’s interests and arguments for such an action.

Të fundit