Statements in the pre-election campaign are like the first moves of the chess game. If they are not careful, a sudden mat follows. If you move them incorrectly, you lose the game later – after the election. Big statements in this period can be turned into big mistakes at high political cost.
Author: Xhelal Neziri
President Stevo Pendarovski did not continue the state of emergency, which was imposed in April to give the government the power to better manage the crisis caused by the corona virus. This means that the country starts counting down to the day when the new parliamentary composition will be voted, which will produce the government that will govern the state in the next four years.
Shortly after the decision, SDSM leader Zoran Zaev and VMRO-DPMNE leader met to discuss the election date. Zaev demands quick elections, 21 days after the cessation of the state of emergency, or on July 5, and Mickovski – in late August or September. Their meeting at Pendarovski’s office was unsuccessful. They said they agreed to continue communicating. In all likelihood, a compromise date will be agreed in mid-July, as both Brussels and Washington do not want elections without Mickovski’s opposition. The latter is also under pressure to run in elections where he will not be able to campaign directly. This could reduce the likelihood of persuading VMRO-DPMNE supporters to go to the polls, while the ruling SDSM appears to have more advantage to maximize the vote.
According to all polls, Zaev’s and Mickovski’s party have a 1-2% difference in support. This favors the same situation as in 2016, when the balancing of the Macedonian vote brought about the same number of MPs for both parties – SDSM 49, VMRO-DPMNE 51. This reality made the DUI with 10 and AA with 3 decisive MPs who will be prime minister and which party will form the government.
Can an ethnic coalition, VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM, make DUI and AA-AAA to reduce their demands? This is unlikely to be the case because of the great ideological and conceptual differences between them. As there can be no ethnic rapprochement between Albanian leaders.
Therefore, the statements in the pre-election campaign are like the first moves of the chess game. If they are not careful, a sudden mat follows. If you move them incorrectly, you lose the game later – after the election. Big statements in this period can be turned into big mistakes at high political cost.
To conclude this text, I am bringing some lessons from the previous mistakes of various politicians from the country and the region:
- Political success and longevity depends on the relationship built with the media and journalists.
2. Never say never, even when it comes to the possibility of a coalition with the biggest political enemy.
3. Diversify potential partners for coalitions.
4. Coalition capacity is just as important, sometimes even more so than winning an election.
5. Know the power of the other and be aware of your power.
6. Don’t get caught up in the dance of big global factors, you will never learn the movement of their legs.
7. Keeping in touch with the official lines of other states, the opposition is almost insignificant in bilateral relations.
8. Do not move a single millimeter from the strategic state orientations – NATO and the EU.
9. The success of a leader is known to the friends he creates, and the failures to the enemies. Never be hostile to strategic friends outside and inside, on which your success depends.
10. In politics, act to achieve goals, not to please the ego.